The most surprising results of Affinnova's OPTIMIZE*08 study show is that former Secretary of State Colin Powell has extraordinary strength on both sides of the aisle as he emerged as the most electable VP choice for both Senator John McCain and Senator Barack Obama. Likely voters for both parties in the study indicate Powell’s strong leadership and dependability as factors for choosing him first.
Among likely Democratic voters, Powell took first place, followed by former Vice President Al Gore and former Majority Leader Dick Gephardt who tied for second place. New York Senator Hillary Clinton came in fourth, and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards finished fifth. Powell’s significant lead on the Democratic ticket is explained by the four-star General’s broad appeal among Democrats, Independents and cross-over Republicans.
Among likely Republican voters, Powell came in first with a slight lead. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney were tied for second (though within the margin of error for Top Ticket honors). Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani came in fifth.
These standings are the result of a landmark study involving 2,000 registered, likely voters and an evolutionary algorithm that presented 40,000 three-option choices. Each option included a hypothetical ticket with three first term priorities. With each voter choice, the algorithm determined in real-time which three options to present in the next set of options. By the end of the optimization study, the top 5 tickets for each party were identified and the breadth of appeal determined. Breadth of Appeal represents the overall favorability of each ticket across the total voting population.
The online survey was conducted with 2,000 registered and likely voters, aged 18+, conducted June 12 - 17, 2008.