June 29, 2008

The Untold Defection Factor

While media attention focuses on the defection potential of Hillary Clinton supporters, this study uncovers a far greater risk of defection in the other direction

An analysis of 2008 presidential primary voters participating in the OPTIMIZE*08 study reveals a significant risk of defection from the McCain ticket by registered Republicans- almost double the risk of defection from registered Democrats.  Specifically, 19% of the 384 registered Republicans in the study who voted in the 2008 Republican primary optimized to an Obama ticket.  Conversely, only 10% of the 471 registered Democrats who voted in the 2008 primaries optimized to a McCain ticket. 

A comparison of individual candidate supporters is more telling.  Only 13% of the 201 Hillary supporters in the study (registered Democrats who voted for Hillary in the 2008 presidential primaries) optimized to a McCain ticket.  Meanwhile, registered Republicans who voted for Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee in the primaries defected at a similar rate of 14%.

Yet, the most surprising difference in potential defection is from the top of the tickets.  Only 3% of the 220 registered Democrats voting for Obama in the primary race optimized to a McCain ticket while 17% of the 155 registered Republicans who voted for McCain in the primaries optimized to an Obama ticket.  This finding goes beyond recent polls that indicate an enthusiasm gap between the two candidates’ supporters by demonstrating the actual risk of defection based on alternative tickets and issue priorities.

A closer examination of the Clinton primary voters reveals that over half (58%) optimized to a non-Hillary Obama ticket, and 29% optimized to the Obama/Clinton ‘dream ticket’.  Breaking down these 58 ‘dream ticket’ voters: more than half state they would still vote for Obama if Hillary is not on the ticket, 22% weren’t sure, 9% said they would not vote and 12% would vote McCain.  That said, even if all of those not sure were to join the claimed defectors, the total loss from Hillary Clinton supporters would still be less than the gain from defecting McCain primary voters.
Other data suggests that if Colin Powell were to be Obama’s running mate, the Republican defection could be even higher.